October 31, 2026. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 in October, 0.8 points lower than in September, according to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. A reading below 50 means contraction. High-tech manufacturing (51.3) and equipment manufacturing (50.6) stayed above the line.
For a buyer, the PMI is a quick way to read your suppliers' mood: which sectors have full order books and which ones are looking for customers.
The October sub-indices
- Production: 49.8, down 1.9 points.
- New orders: 49.4, down 1.1 points.
- Large companies: 50.2, still expanding; medium-sized 48.4; small 47.5.
- Consumer goods: 48.8, down 1.9 points, according to 21st Century Business Herald.
China Daily reports that NBS statistician Huo Lihui attributed part of the drop to demand pulled forward before the National Day holiday in early October and to a changing international environment. The production and business expectations index stood at 53.4.
Factory prices: still rising, but slower
The input price index was 56.8 (down 4 points) and the factory-gate selling price index 51.7 (down 2.3 points), according to 21st Century Business Herald. Both remain above 50, so more companies reported increases than decreases.
How to use this in your next negotiation
Our take: when new orders soften, especially in consumer goods and among small and mid-sized factories, many suppliers are more flexible on minimum order quantities, lead times or payment terms. But price indices are still in rising territory, so do not assume prices will fall.
- Get quotes from several factories for the same product and compare the landed price, not just the ex-works price.
- Ask for a written validity period on every quote: raw material costs are still moving.
- Before a large deposit to a small factory, verify the supplier and its real capacity.
- If you negotiated a lower price, book a pre-shipment inspection to make sure quality did not drop with it.
Our supplier sourcing team in Dongguan runs these comparisons for you.
