November 9, 2026. Mexico's annual inflation rose to 3.75 % in October from 3.45 % in September, according to the national statistics institute INEGI. That beat the 3.65 % expected by economists polled by Reuters and is the highest since May, according to Semanario ZETA. It is still inside Banxico's 2 % to 4 % range around its 3 % target.
What drove the increase
Prices rose 0.65 % in the month. Infobae reports electricity up 18.51 % as summer subsidies ended in 18 cities, air transport up 26.36 % and green tomatoes up 35.58 %. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, reached 3.80 %, with two different speeds:
- Services: 4.32 % a year, 0.44 % in the month.
- Goods: 3.25 % a year, 0.22 % in the month.
Banxico cuts, then pauses
On November 5 Banxico cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 %, in a 3–2 vote, saying that holding the rate "for a prolonged period" at that level will support convergence to target. It raised its fourth-quarter 2026 inflation forecast to 3.7 % and expects 3 % by the fourth quarter of 2027. The bank noted that the peso had weakened since its previous decision and named further depreciation as an upside risk. Analysts cited by ZETA, including Andrés Abadía of Pantheon Macroeconomics, expect the rate to stay at 6.25 % through the first half of 2027.
Our take
For anyone selling into Mexico or buying from China for the Mexican market, the final cost depends on three things you can manage: factory price, the exchange rate on payment day and freight. In the same week China reported factory-gate prices up 5.7 %, mostly in energy and metals, while finished consumer goods were stable.
- Ask for DDP quotes with a validity date so you know the delivered price in Mexico.
- Work out the full landed cost including duties and currency.
- Favor finished consumer goods and compare factories through product sourcing for metal-heavy or electronic items.
